Mortgage Applications Fall 1.2%
Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week
earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers
Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the
week ending March 2, 2012. The Market Composite Index, a measure
of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a
seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an
unadjusted basis, the Index increased 10.2 percent compared with
the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2.0 percent
from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index
increased 2.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted
Purchase Index increased 14.7 percent compared with the previous
week and was 7.8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Presidents
Day holiday. The four week moving average for the seasonally
adjusted Market Index is down 1.77 percent. The four week moving
average is down 0.47 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index, while this average is down 2.04 percent for the Refinance
Index. During the month of February, the investor share of
applications for home purchase was at 6.1 percent, a decrease
from 6.4 percent in January. This change was led by a decline in
the New England region. In addition, the share of purchase
mortgages for second homes decreased to 5.8 percent in February
from 5.9 percent in January.
Gas prices on a rise
Drivers are paying more at the pump than they were just a few
days ago. The U.S. government reported that the average price of
a gallon of regular gasoline rose more than seven cents to $3.79
during the past week. The price has climbed nearly 50 cents since
Jan. 2. Some analysts worry that rising energy prices could
undermine the economic recovery. Economists say if the price
stays high for a good part of the year, it could stall the
creation of jobs. And higher fuel prices could eventually start
to have an unwelcome side effect: spiraling inflation. “This rise
in fuel price is a negative for the economy,” says John Silvia,
chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, N.C. “The
reality is transportation gets hit and the cost of goods goes
up.” The hardest hit are the drivers who live in the poorest
states and those who travel the longest distances. However, the
price of gasoline has probably risen fastest in California. Since
Jan. 1, the price of regular gasoline in the Golden State is up
61 cents a gallon. For the nation as a whole, some economists now
anticipate the price of gasoline at the pump will exceed $4 a
gallon by Memorial Day, the official start of the summer driving
season. Mr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics
says this could result in the loss of 500,000 jobs. “It basically
means we don’t make any progress on reducing unemployment this
year,” he says.
Housing Affordability Index Hits Record High
According to the National Association of Realtors, the housing
affordability conditions have reached the highest level since
recordkeeping began in 1970. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index
rose to a record high 206.1 in January, based on the relationship
between median home price, median family income and average
mortgage interest rate. An index of 100 is defined as the point
where a median-income household has exactly enough income to
qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing
single-family home, assuming a 20 percent down payment and 25
percent of gross income devoted to mortgage principal and
interest payments. “This is the first time the housing
affordability index has broken the two hundred mark, meaning the
typical family has roughly double the income needed to purchase a
median-priced home,” he said. “For buyers who can qualify for
a mortgage, now is a very good time to become a homeowner,”
said NAR President Moe Veissi.
Olick: Huge Spike in Repeat Foreclosures
Thousands of foreclosures that were stuck in process due to
delays over the so-called “Robo-signing” paperwork scandal are
working their way through a revamped banking system and heading
toward final bank repossession. Foreclosure starts surged 28
percent in January from December, according to a new report from
Lender Processing Services. More than 230,000 loans began the
foreclosure process in January. Even more indicative of this new
surge in processing is that repeat foreclosures hit an all-time
high in January, representing 47 percent of all starts, according
to LPS. Repeat foreclosures are either failed loan modifications,
or loans that banks were attempting to modify but couldn’t. “This
large amount of foreclosures that have been sitting out there,
with borrowers not making payments for an extended period of
time, this may be coming to an end,” says LPS’ Herb Blecher.
“This is what the market is looking for.” That’s because while
painful to housing in the short term, moving the huge pipeline of
delinquent loans to their inevitable end will help the overall
market in the long term. There are nearly 4 million loans now in
some stage of delinquency which have not even entered the
foreclosure process. Banks are modifying loans more aggressively
now, but many of these mortgages simply cannot be saved, and the
sooner they are processed and new buyers are found for the
properties, the sooner overall home prices can recover. The new
surge in foreclosure starts consequently created an equal surge
in foreclosure sales. Foreclosure sales rose 29 percent month to
month in January, indicating that there will be a new surge of
distressed properties coming to the housing market in the next
few months, as banks try to sell these homes. While new mortgage
delinquencies are falling, the backlog of distress is large. More
than 40 percent of loans in foreclosure are more than two years
past due, and judicial states have 63 months of foreclosure
inventory to work through.
FHFA, Freddie faulted for overlooking mortgage servicers
Freddie Mac and its conservator the Federal Housing Finance
Agency avoided implementing stronger oversight of mortgage
servicers when they had the chance, according to an FHFA Office
of Inspector General report. Freddie contracts with more than
1,400 servicers, but the largest banks handle the majority of its
$1.8 trillion portfolio. In 2010, evidence surfaced of mishandled
foreclosures, lost paperwork and improper signatures at the big
servicing firms. The top five servicers agreed to a $25 billion
settlement with the state attorneys general in February. Freddie
did not install its servicing scorecard program until July 2011
and rated the overall performance as below standard or
unacceptable, according to its most recent report. Documentation
the government-sponsored enterprise provided to the Inspector
General shows weak servicer oversight and risk management played
a significant role in the subpar performance. n a letter to the
inspector general, FHFA Deputy Director of Enterprise Regulation
Jon Greenlee wrote on the supervision of Freddie that “a
dedicated examination staff to monitor and coordinate oversight
activities would enhance the agency’s overall efficiency and
effectiveness.”
DSnews: Foreclosures spike in January
Data through the end of January shows significant movement in
both foreclosure starts and sales, and it has some market
watchers saying the lull in foreclosure activity seen over the
past year-and-a-half may very well be coming to an end. Lender
Processing Services’ (LPS) latest market report says
foreclosure starts jumped 28 percent between December and
January, and foreclosure sales soared 29 percent. “While one
month of data does not necessarily indicate a trend, this surge
could suggest the backlogged foreclosure pipeline is beginning to
move,” LPS said in its report. The January data also shows that
the percentage of repeat foreclosures hit a new all-time high,
with 47 percent of all foreclosure starts during the month
involving a mortgage that had been delinquent before, cured, and
then fell back into foreclosure again.
Home prices at levels of 10 years ago: CoreLogic
Home prices in January declined for the sixth consecutive month
in a row, according to the latest data from CoreLogic. The Santa
Ana, Calif.-based analytics firm says home prices, including
those on distressed sales, fell 3.1% in January from a year
earlier and dipped 1% from December. When excluding distressed
home sales, prices fell 0.9% in January compared to a year
earlier. “Home prices are down to nearly the same levels as 10
years ago,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. The
five states with the highest price appreciation in January
included South Dakota, where prices rose 5.7%, North Dakota (up
4%), West Virginia (up 4%), Montana (up 3.6%) and Michigan (up
3%). States with the deepest price depreciation included Illinois
with a drop of 8.7%, Nevada (down 8%), Delaware (7.9%), Alabama
(7.7%), and Georgia (7.5%). When evaluating home price
depreciation from peak levels of April 2006 to January 2012, the
drop is a steep 34% and 24.2% when excluding distressed assets.
See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin
**************
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